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    June 25

    China

    Broadly speaking, Asian markets retracted in May, shocked by rising oil prices and inflation concerns. In the aftermath of last month’s devastating earthquake in China, the Hang Seng was down 4.8% and A shares down 7%. However, fundamentals prevailed and managers were generally able to profit from both longs and shorts. Exports to US and Europe have eased, but domestic demand continues to rise. Despite the disastrous earthquake, China will still put in a 10 % GDP growth in 2008. Rebuilding will act as a stimulus while inflation is expected to fall as food prices moderate, allowing the authorities to end their recent monetary tightening campaign. This will keep demand for commodities firm.

    June 24

    salle de marche的厕所

    salle de marche的厕所墙上贴了一张纸:"上完厕所请洗手!"厕所的门上贴了一张纸:"上完厕所请洗手!!"厕所的门背贴了一张纸:"上完厕所请洗手!!!"
    可是那帮trader就是上完厕所不洗手就和客户亲切握手,深情拥抱......
    June 20

    巨大而隐蔽的陷阱

    谁要是由以下论点投资MEXICO,就死定了.

    The US Dollar has weakened against almost every currency in the world except the Mexican Peso and

    the Middle Eastern currencies. Thus, an imported bushel of cotton (one could choose any good that

    Mexico grows or makes) from Mexico is less expensive from a US importer's perspective than a

    bushel of cotton from Europe, China, India and most other countries.

    对这个问题,里层含义和全局观念很重要.

    June 17

    market correction are just going too far

    Back in 2000, the equity risk premium was excessively low. That is, the valuations were exceedingly

    high. Groups of companies, all focusing on the same market, claimed that they could achieve a 30%

    market share. Since at least twenty companies were making the same claim, you knew

    mathematically that this was impossible. Such a result could be achieved by three companies but not

    twenty, yet all twenty were priced in a way that suggested that it would happen for all twenty. This

    was, by definition, a bubble. Mutually exclusive outcomes, expressed in stock valuations, were trading

    at levels that suggested that all the companies were going to be wildly successful. It was a period for

    much caution. Today, in our opinion, the situation is the mirror opposite.

    June 16

    一个印度阿三管的FUND

              Jan        Feb          Mar      Apr       May              Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD

    2008

    (12.44)    (8.66)      (9.32)     (2.02)     (9.02)                                                                  (35.63)

    多少有点了不起. 勇将就是不停地败,还自称为将.

     

    June 15

    You can't always get what you want.

     

    amber 的死有点出乎我的意外,不过托她的福,house的第四季有了个理想的结局。像上次的Euphoria一样。这剧集偶尔也会有这种神来之笔。

    amber的死多少有点生命致轻的感觉,euphoria那次就有点生命致重的意味。

    也许只有将生命放在天平的另一端时。人才会真正用心思考,用心感叹。

    献上 Iron & Wine的<Passing Afternoon>

    There are times that walk from you like some passing afternoon
    Summer warmed the open window of her honeymoon
    And she chose a yard to burn but the ground remembers her
    Wooden spoons, her children stir her Bougainvillea blooms
    There are things that drift away like our endless, numbered days
    Autumn blew the quilt right off the perfect bed she made
    And she's chosen to believe in the hymns her mother sings
    Sunday pulls its children from their piles of fallen leaves
    There are sailing ships that pass all our bodies in the grass
    Springtime calls her children until she lets them go at last
    And she's chosen where to be, though she's lost her wedding ring
    Somewhere near her misplaced jar of Bougainvillea seeds
    There are things we can't recall, Blind as night that finds us all
    Winter tucks her children in, her fragile china dolls
    But my hands remember hers, rolling around the shaded ferns
    Naked arms, her secrets still like songs I'd never learned
    There are names across the sea, only now I do believe
    Sometimes, with the window closed, she'll sit and think of me
    But she'll mend his tattered clothes and they'll kiss as if they know
    A baby sleeps in all our bones, so scared to be alone

    June 13

    sell in May and Go away

    There is a seasonal deviation to most equity markets which is remembered by the mnemonic, "sell in May and go away". It seems to have worked again this year. The rally in most indices appears to have topped out late in the month and has now broken back below important support levels. The indices now seem headed back down again. We have certainly found that many of the longs have stopped rising, and quite quickly the short book seems to be paying off.
    June 12

    Hack.

    由那个音乐女神制作的音乐,良好的画风,波澜不惊而不无聊的故事。

    Hack.系列的片子一般都值得一看。

     

    6e3b09c4a225b8cb7be48aff49e27019

    439383d2d0574081fccc0435e61a764d

    12308aae443cae2e957ee57d91738aa5

    本来这世上就没什么大不了的事。史诗般的战役是件大事,但是每个平凡人心里小小的决心,小小的理解,小小的原谅同样是件了不起的事。

    Hack.Root 26集的故事就只是讲了一个普通男孩的小小的决心,小小的理解,小小的爱意的事情。

    June 11

    荒唐的报告

    看到一份荒唐的报告,忍不住说几句

    For the month of March, our offshore and two domestic funds declined by 6.XX%, 8.XX% and 6.XX%, respectively.(Yes and you should kill yourself) Over the same period, the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Composite Index had respective returns of (0.43) % and 0.34%.(see, you are much much worse even than the index) Despite our year-to-date results,(you are saying We are losing money and that’s OK) the vehicle you are invested in is a hedge fund.(yes all the hedge fund should lose money) For us, shorting is a tool meant to be used,(yes if you are correctly short you will have a result very very positive) and possibly quite aggressively in the future,( come on, the chance is going, history never repeat) when we deem the returns on such action to be as compelling,(we should) or more compelling,(more true) than what we are able to find on the long side.(seems you loss worse at long side) Our levered long position is not a permanent condition.(everyone is deleveraging and you want more debt) It is, however, highly unlikely that it will be radically altered anytime soon. We act on the assumption that you have entrusted capital to us because we are likely to grow it at a satisfactory rate.(thanks to a mistake) In our opinion, the opportunity set for our funds has never been better. At the exact time investors should be giving us more capital they are contemplating taking it away.(that’s a good one) The institutional imperative has always created investor dysfunction. There in are the opportunities. We are sanguine about the near-term opportunities available to us.(all blablabla)

     
    June 06

    Market Highlights

    themes:

    African mining sector

    Asian infrastructure theme

    Brazilian agriculture trades and food producers

    Overvalued EM financials with exposure to South Eastern Europe